A ＂Barometer＂ —— Review of Cross-Strait Economic Relations in 2016
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 25th Title: A "barometer" — — Review of Cross-Strait Economic Relations in 2016
Xinhua News Agency reporter Qi Xianghui and Chen Jianxing
Although the annual statistics have not yet been released, a special "contrast" phenomenon can be found in the data published by the Ministry of Commerce: from January to October 2016, the trade volume between the mainland and Taiwan Province decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the mainland approved Taiwanese investment projects increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Cross-strait trade volume declined, and Taiwanese investment in the mainland climbed, with one rain and one sunny day, revealing the intriguing changes in cross-strait economic interaction under the background of cross-strait relations in 2016.
The growth rate of cross-strait trade slows down, and Taiwan Province’s economic recovery is "weak"
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first ten months of 2016, the cross-strait trade volume was US$ 143.5 billion, of which mainland exports to Taiwan were US$ 32.57 billion and imports from Taiwan were US$ 110.93 billion, down by 12.6% and 4% respectively.
Zhang Guanhua, deputy director of Taiwan Province Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that apart from the global economic weakness and the structural transformation of cross-strait trade, the political factors of cross-strait relations have obviously the most prominent influence on cross-strait trade. The process of institutionalized cooperation in the cross-strait economic and trade field was forced to be interrupted, and the negotiations on the follow-up agreements of the Framework Agreement on Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation (ECFA), such as the agreement on goods and trade, were completely stopped, which seriously restricted the further development of cross-strait economic interaction and slowed down the growth of cross-strait trade.
After taking office, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities refused to recognize the "1992 Consensus" and its core meaning that both sides of the strait belong to the same China, which led to the cross-strait relations turning from hot to cold, and the process of cross-strait economic institutionalized cooperation came to a standstill, which made Taiwan Province’s economy, which was deeply affected by the "cross-strait factors", fall into a "faint" dilemma in the "cold autumn" of the global downturn. According to the forecast released by research institutions on the island this month, Taiwan Province’s economic growth rate in 2016 is 1.26%.
Taiwan’s tourism industry suffered the most from the "cold rain" attack. Statistics from Taiwan show that in the third quarter of 2016, the number of mainland tourists to Taiwan dropped by 28.4% year-on-year. It is understood that the sharp drop of mainland tourists has deeply impacted many industries in Taiwan Province, such as civil aviation, hotels, restaurants, tourist vehicles, department stores and retail, and affected the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of families.
The Democratic Progressive Party authorities have caused the deterioration of cross-strait relations, and also led to a sharp drop in the number of Taiwan Province agricultural products sold to the mainland, which has damaged the interests of grassroots farmers and fishermen on the island. "The pineapple we sold to the mainland dropped sharply from 30 containers last year to 9 containers now, and the lemon dropped sharply from 7 to 10 containers by 1 to 3 containers." Lishan Zhang, a representative of public opinion on the island, bluntly said that the freezing of cross-strait relations has seriously impacted all walks of life in Taiwan Province, with farmers and fishermen suffering particularly heavy losses.
It is an indisputable fact that Taiwan Province’s economic environment tends to deteriorate after Democratic Progressive Party took office. Protests against the authorities have been taking place one after another in the streets of Taiwan Province. In addition to the demands of the tourism industry for "survival, employment and adequate food and clothing", farmers and fishermen at the grass-roots level have also gathered to call on the authorities to recognize the "1992 Consensus" as soon as possible, so that the two sides of the strait can exchange and cooperate as in the past eight years, and farmers in Taiwan Province can "have a bite to eat".
Taiwanese businessmen are optimistic about the mainland’s new machine, Democratic Progressive Party’s "new southward direction", which lacks response.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first ten months of 2016, the mainland approved a total of 2,857 Taiwanese investment projects, up 24.9% year-on-year; The actual amount of Taiwanese investment was US$ 2.98 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year.
Regarding Taiwan Province scholar Pang Jianguo’s view that Taiwanese businessmen are actively launching a new round of mainland layout, the 13th Five-Year Plan of the mainland has put forward many new development directions, among which "internet plus", "Made in China 2025" and "Belt and Road" will all create considerable industrial kinetic energy and business opportunities, which should not be missed for Taiwan Province industry.
“‘ Thirteenth Five-Year Plan ’ The discussion on cross-strait economic cooperation in the plan has clear goals, clear directions and rich connotations, which provides great development opportunities for cross-strait economic cooperation and Taiwan Province’s economic development. " Cao Xiaoheng, director of Taiwan Province Economic Research Institute of Nankai University, believes that the 13th Five-Year Plan will help cross-strait cooperation mode change from vertical division of labor to horizontal division of labor, so as to further deepen cross-strait economic integration, form complementary industrial advantages and jointly explore the international market.
Taiwanese businessmen with a keen sense of smell have captured this signal. A survey report released this year by Taiwan Province Electrical and Electronic Industry Association pointed out that Taiwanese businessmen are highly concerned about the rise of the development strength of the western mainland, and the investment hotspots of Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland have shown a trend of expanding to the central and western regions, among which the "Western Triangle" urban agglomeration composed of Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi ‘an is particularly favored by Taiwanese businessmen.
"The mainland’s electronic information, art design, catering services and other industries have great potential, especially the vibrant western market has great potential for Taiwanese businessmen." Zhang Ronghua, a Taiwanese businessman in Chengdu, said.
Taiwanese businessmen increase their investment in the mainland, aiming at grasping the lifeline of enterprise development and enhancing global competitiveness by participating in a series of new development strategies in the mainland. However, the Taiwan Province authorities attempted to suppress or even block cross-strait economic relations and launched the so-called "new southward policy". Taiwan Province’s industry obviously doesn’t "buy it" for this practice of the authorities, as can be seen from the substantial growth of Taiwanese investment in the mainland.
Zhang Guanhua pointed out that the statistics of Taiwanese investment in the mainland show that the "new southward policy" advocated by the Taiwan authorities cannot replace the attraction of the mainland to Taiwanese businessmen. Even for labor-intensive Taiwan-funded enterprises in Southeast Asia, most of the upstream raw materials are purchased from the mainland, which is essentially an extension and expansion of the mainland industrial chain.
Zhao Jianmin, a Taiwan Province scholar, analyzed that the Belt and Road Initiative is a major development strategy of the mainland, which will provide new opportunities for deepening cross-strait economic and trade cooperation, and Taiwan Province should seize the opportunity. However, due to political considerations, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities abandoned the "Belt and Road Initiative" and pushed for the "new southward policy", which is simply to seek fish from the wood.
The mainland sincerely promotes exchanges and cooperation, and the "insulation" of people-to-people exchanges is expected to develop well.
Under the circumstance that the process of cross-strait economic institutionalized cooperation is blocked, the mainland side adheres to the concept of "one family on both sides of the strait" and continues to promote cross-strait economic exchanges and cooperation, showing its sincere attitude of sharing the development opportunities of the mainland with Taiwan Province compatriots. In 2016, cross-strait economic and trade exchanges continued unabated, and the active non-governmental interaction reflected the strong desire of compatriots on both sides of the strait to continuously promote exchanges and cooperation.
Over the past year, the Cross-Strait Cultural Industry Expo and Trade Fair, the Cross-Strait Modern Agriculture Expo, the Cross-Strait Flower Expo, the Tianjin-Taiwan Fair, the Lutai Fair, the Zhejiang Taiwan Province Week, the Jiangxi-Taiwan Fair, the Chongqing Taiwan Province Week, and the Hubei-Wuhan Taiwan Province Week have been staged by relay, with the enthusiastic participation of people from all walks of life on both sides of the strait, including Taiwan Province industrial and commercial organizations and enterprises, youth and grassroots representatives, and many concrete results have been achieved.
From November 21st to 28th, at the invitation of eight counties and cities in Taiwan Province, the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives took the lead in organizing relevant mainland associations and enterprises to visit Taiwan and discuss agricultural products cooperation. A month later, a delegation from 8 counties and cities in Taiwan Province returned to Beijing to hold a fair for agricultural special products exhibition and tourism promotion, which attracted many mainland enterprises and ordinary people to visit.
Lin Mingyong, head of Nantou County, who came to Beijing to attend the event, said that after the Democratic Progressive Party authorities came to power, mainland tourists dropped sharply, and Nantou’s tourism industry was deeply hurt. In the past, Sun Moon Lake was "people waiting for a boat", but now it has become "a boat waiting for someone". Both sides of the strait belong to the Chinese nation and should exchange and cooperate. This is the idea of Taiwan Province people. It is hoped that people on both sides of the strait will strengthen exchanges and cooperation, so as to urge the Democratic Progressive Party authorities to change their policies and maintain the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.
“‘ 5·20’ After that, there were fewer mainland tourists, and the sales of tea also dropped sharply. We are very worried. " Liu Jinyi, the owner of Yilin Tea Garden in Nantou County, said that he was very grateful to the mainland for the careful arrangement, which enabled Taiwan Province’s agricultural products to stand on such a big platform as the Beijing Exhibition Hall. The activities were very helpful to Nantou’s economy and benefited people in agriculture, tourism and other industries. I hope the mainland will help Taiwan Province tea farmers to further explore the mainland market.
At the end of the year, people who have worked hard for a year will look back and make wishes for the coming year. "The more cross-strait exchange activities, the better." Lin Zikai, CEO of Dongguan Taiwan Province Youth Innovation and Entrepreneurship Service Center, said that since the Democratic Progressive Party authorities came to power, entrepreneurs who traveled across the Taiwan Straits were deeply worried about the uncertainty of cross-strait relations. "Everyone cherishes peace and stability very much and hopes that cross-strait economic exchanges will continue to develop."