42.7%、21.1% ！ What is the culprit in the big price increase of fruits and pork？

　　Beijing, July 10 (Reporter Li Jinlei) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June. So far, the CPI increase has exceeded 2% for four consecutive months. Among them, the price of fruit rose by more than 40%, and the price of pig rose by more than 20%, which was the main reason for the increase of CPI in June. Experts predict that May and June will be the high point of CPI for the whole year, and then it will fall back.

　　CPI rose by more than 2% for four consecutive months.

　　Driven by the sharp rise in the prices of pork, fruit and other foods, the CPI increase in June was the same as that in May, and it continued to maintain the "2 era". So far, the year-on-year increase of CPI has exceeded 2% for four consecutive months since March this year.

　　In June, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year. It is basically consistent with the expectations of previous market institutions. Wind information data shows that the average forecast value of 20 research institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in June is 2.7%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 2.9% and the minimum value is 2.5%.

　　Cao Heping, a professor at Peking University University of Economics, told Zhongxin.com that the price increase did not continue to expand in June, mainly because the price increase of vegetables declined.

　　The data shows that from the ring comparison, the CPI changed from flat last month to a decrease of 0.1%. In food, a large number of fresh vegetables were listed, and the price dropped by 9.7%, which affected the CPI by about 0.25 percentage points. On a year-on-year basis, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 4.2%, 9.1 percentage points lower than last month.

　　The prices of fruits and pork rose sharply.

　　The sharp rise in the prices of fruits and pork is regarded as the "culprit" for the continued rise in prices in June.

　　According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of fresh fruit rose by 42.7%, which affected the CPI by about 0.71 percentage points. Pork prices rose by 21.1%, affecting CPI by about 0.45 percentage points.

　　Why do the prices of fruits and pork soar? Dong Yaxiu, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the price of fresh fruit rose by 42.7%, an increase of 16.0 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.71 percentage points. In addition to climate and other factors, the lower price in the same period last year was also one of the reasons for the increase.

　　From the ring comparison, the centralized listing prices of fruits such as watermelon and peach decreased, but the prices of apples and pears continued to rise and the increase was relatively high. In addition, the heavy precipitation in some parts of the south affected the picking and transportation, and the prices of pitaya and pineapple rose. The national fresh fruit price rose by 5.1%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.11 percentage points. At present, the price level is at a historical high.

　　Cao Heping believes that in addition to seasonal factors, the rising cost of fruit packaging is also the reason for the soaring fruit price. In addition to the tight supply caused by African swine fever, the increase in pork prices is also an important reason.

　　Wang Bin, deputy director of the Marketing Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the main producing areas of apples and pears suffered from abnormal weather last year, resulting in a significant decline in output; The continuous rainy weather in some parts of the south this spring has had a certain impact on vegetable production. Some of them are influenced by non-market factors. For example, due to the African swine fever epidemic, the number of live pigs has declined to some extent.

　　Will the prices of fruits and pork continue to soar?

　　For ordinary people, the most concerned question is, will the prices of fruits and pork continue to rise in the next period of time?

　　Cao Heping believes that with the influence of seasonality, weather, disasters and other factors decreasing, the logistics cost will decrease, and it is expected that the price increase of fruits and pork will gradually decrease.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, analyzed that at present, the number of live pigs and the number of fertile sows are still declining rapidly, and the rising cycle of pork prices has been formed, which will still be an important factor driving CPI to rise in the second half of the year.

　　Wang Bin said that recently, with the temperature rising, a large number of seasonal vegetables and fruits have been put on the market, and the prices of fruits and vegetables have generally shown a downward trend, and the increase of pork prices has also slowed down compared with the previous period.

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from June 24th to June 30th, the average wholesale prices of 30 kinds of vegetables in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide decreased by 3.7% compared with the beginning of June, and by 11.9% compared with the beginning of May. The average wholesale prices of 6 kinds of fruits monitored dropped by 0.2% compared with the previous week, and the increase of pork prices dropped by 3.3 percentage points.

　　What is the price trend in the second half of the year?

　　Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that CPI rose by 2.2% in the first half of the year, so what will be the price trend in the second half of the year?

　　Lian Ping said that considering the steady decline of non-food prices and core CPI, it shows that the pulling effect of total demand on prices is not obvious, and there is no significant inflation risk in the economy.

　　Lian Ping believes that the obvious decline of CPI hikes in the second half of the year and the effect of VAT tax reduction will, to some extent, offset the impact of rising pork prices on the year-on-year increase of CPI. It is expected that there will be no problem in controlling the average year-on-year increase of CPI within 2.5%.

　　Lu Yanchun, director of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, had predicted that May and June of this year would be the high point of CPI for the whole year, and then it would fall back, and there might be a slight rebound at the end of the year. (End)