New changes and trends in the development of world trade
At present, there are some new situations or distinctive features in the field of world trade. Analyzing and explaining these new changes will help us to grasp the development trend of world trade and China’s position in world trade, evaluate China’s current trade strategy and policy from a new perspective, take countermeasures in time, and make corresponding adjustments and improvements.
1. In 2003, world trade picked up significantly in imbalance.
According to the international trade data released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in April this year, world trade has recovered from the predicament of the previous two years, driven by the higher-than-expected economic growth rate in the United States and Asia. In 2003, the export volume of global goods trade reached 7.274 trillion US dollars, up by 16% year-on-year. If the effects of price increase and dollar depreciation are deducted, the global goods trade actually increased by 4.5%. In 2003, the global export volume of service trade was US$ 1.763 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 12% (see Table 1). In the long run, the nominal growth rate of trade in goods and services in 2003 is the strongest since 1995, but the real growth rate (that is, after deducting the influence of price and other factors) is still lower than the average growth rate of 5.5% since the establishment of WTO in 1995.
In 2003, the pace of trade growth in the world’s major trade areas or countries was very uneven. From the perspective of trade volume, Asia and transition economies are the regions with the strongest trade growth, and the growth rate of import and export of goods is 10%-12%, which is more than twice the world average, which greatly promotes the development of world trade. The import demand from North America also led to the growth of world trade, in which the import of the United States increased by 5.7% and the export increased by less than 3%. However, the import growth in Western Europe and Latin America is slow, with the growth rate below 2%, reflecting the weak economic situation in these two regions. From the perspective of trade volume, the growth rate of trade volume of goods in major trade areas in 2003 not only exceeded the previous year’s level, but also increased strongly (see Table 2). Among the seven trade zones, all six regions except North America have trade surpluses, while the trade deficit in North America has further expanded. The recovery of exports in Latin America is mainly due to the active trade of MERCOSUR (especially Brazil). In Asia, China’s import and export trade has increased significantly, especially for office machinery and electronic equipment. In 2003, the import growth rate of the United States exceeded the world average, and the strong import demand driven by the rapid recovery of the domestic economy since the second half of the year was an important influencing factor. At the same time, the import growth rate of the United States continued to greatly exceed its exports, which led to a further increase in the trade deficit of the United States. In 2003, the foreign trade deficit of the United States in terms of FOB prices reached US$ 549 billion, a record high, accounting for 7.6% of the world’s total exports of goods. Affected by the appreciation of the euro,In 2003, Germany’s exports of goods once again surpassed the United States, ranking first in the world.
In 2003, the exchange rate of US dollar, crude oil price and commodity price in the international market were the important factors that affected the change of world trade volume. (1) The exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen sharply. Compared with the same period of last year, at the end of 2003, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro fell by 16.8%, against the Japanese yen by 11.4% and against the British pound by 9%. The depreciation of the dollar led to the rise of commodity prices denominated in dollars, and the growth rate of global trade volume increased significantly. In western Europe, the growth of export trade volume in 2003 was close to stagnation (less than 1%), but the export value denominated in dollars was even faster than the world average due to the appreciation of the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. (2) The price of crude oil in the international market has risen. Affected by the unstable political situation in the Middle East and the domestic turmoil in Venezuela, the price of crude oil in the international market rose by 16% in 2003. This makes the dollar-denominated trade exports of some oil exporting countries (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) increase by more than 20%. In Africa, the export expansion of some oil exporting countries is also much higher than that of most non-oil exporting countries. (3) Commodity prices in the international market have risen significantly. Due to the changes in commodity prices and exchange rate factors, the price of world trade in goods rose by 10.5% in 2003, which is the first time since 1995 that the prices of agricultural products and manufactured goods denominated in US dollars have increased significantly. The average price of non-oil commodities has increased by 7%, of which the price of metals has increased by 12%. Due to exchange rate factors, the price of finished products varies greatly in different regions, and the global average has increased by nearly 10%.
Second, the main characteristics and trends of current world trade development
At present, the total GDP of the world is about 30 trillion dollars, and world trade accounts for about a quarter of it. The in-depth development of economic globalization, the progress of science and technology, the adjustment of industrial structure, the great development of multinational corporations, and the perfection of the world trade system have not only brought great impetus to the development of world trade, but also brought many uncertainties to the development of world trade, making it constantly face new contradictions. World trade is developing step by step in various dynamics and many contradictions.
1. With the strong recovery of the world economy, the growth rate of world trade will further increase in 2004.
In 2001, due to the collapse of the world information technology bubble, the world trade in goods denominated in US dollars experienced the largest negative growth in more than 10 years, and the world trade in goods experienced the first negative growth since 1982. In 2002, world trade showed a recovery growth. Since the second half of 2003, it has obviously accelerated (see table 1), especially in the United States and East Asia, and the annual growth rate of world trade exceeded expectations.
At present, international economic organizations and institutions are generally optimistic about the recent world economic prospects, and believe that the overall world economic situation will continue to maintain a good situation in 2004, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to further increase, reaching the highest level in the past three years. Under the background of global economic growth, the growth rate of world trade in 2004 will also be faster and stronger than that of the previous year. According to the forecast of WTO, the growth rate of global trade volume will reach 7.5% in 2004. The recovery of domestic demand in the United States and the expansion of production in China will be two important factors to promote the growth of world trade. In OECD countries, trade in goods and services has expanded significantly since the second half of 2003, with an annual growth rate close to 9%, and this trend has remained since 2004. The greater development of trade can provide support for the sustainable economic development and job creation of all countries. However, the current development of world trade also faces some uncertain factors or risks, including the future import growth rate of the United States may be lower than expected, the slow recovery of demand in Western Europe and the tense political situation in the Middle East.
Trade liberalization is one of the foundations of contemporary economic globalization. The growth of world trade has increased the dependence of countries on trade, and the overall openness of world trade has been continuously improved. According to the data of the World Bank, the proportion of world trade in goods in the global GDP calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP) has increased from 22.3% in 1989 to 27.4% in 1999. In order to promote the development of world trade, countries realize the importance of orderly free trade. It is predicted that by 2050, trade will account for 50% of the world GDP, and world trade activities will be more frequent.
2. The trade status of developing countries and regions has been strengthened, and China has become an important factor driving the growth of world trade.
Since 1990s, the economic growth of developing countries has been faster than that of developed countries, and it is expected that this trend will be maintained in the next few years. As a whole, the growth rate of import and export of developing countries has been faster than the global average in recent ten years, and its share in world goods export trade has increased from 23.5% in 1990 to nearly 30% in 2003. 2003
The export growth rate of developing countries’ goods trade reached 17% in, which was higher than their import growth rate and the world average growth level, which led to the expansion of trade surplus. However, in terms of trade in services, the growth rate of imports and exports of developing countries in 2003 was only half of the world average, and maintained a deficit (see Table 3).
It is worth noting that the trade between developing countries, known as "South-South trade", has developed rapidly. From 1990 to 2001, the average annual growth rate of trade among developing countries reached 10%, which was twice the world average growth rate. The trade volume among developing countries increased from $219 billion in 1990 to $639 billion in 2001, and the proportion of the total world trade also increased from 6.5% to 10.7%, of which two thirds were created by Asian countries. Trade in manufactured goods is the most active part of trade among developing countries, with an average annual growth rate of 12% in the 1990s. In 2001, trade in manufactured goods accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total trade among developing countries. The trade between developing countries has greatly promoted the growth of their domestic economy.
China is the most prominent "bright spot" in the growth of world trade in recent years. Its position in world trade has been promoted the fastest, and its contribution to the growth of world trade is second only to that of the United States. In nominal dollars in 2003, China’s imports increased by 40%, and its ranking in world imports jumped from the sixth in the previous year to the third, accounting for 5.3% of the world’s total imports of goods. Exports increased by 35%, ranking fourth in world exports from the fifth in the previous year, accounting for 5.9% of the total export of goods in the world. It can be said that no country has experienced such a large-scale trade growth. In 2003, China became the largest exporter of service trade among developing China countries and ranked ninth in the world.
3. Trade based on regional integration and cooperation has been expanding, and cross-regional trade agreements have developed rapidly.
By January 2004, there were 293 regional trade agreements notified to GATT/WTO, of which 197 were still valid. In recent years, the new round of WTO negotiations has been struggling and the Cancun meeting has been frustrated, which has obviously accelerated the development of global regional trade agreements, among which bilateral free trade agreements have developed rapidly because of their strong operability. In 2003 alone, 12 regional trade agreements were signed and negotiations on 9 new agreements were initiated. In February this year, the United States and Australia signed a free trade agreement, and in the same month, six countries from South Asia and Southeast Asia (India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan) signed a framework agreement to establish a free trade area in 2017. In April, the Andean Community of South America and MERCOSUR reached an agreement on the establishment of a free trade area, and the South American Free Trade Area will be formally established on July 1 this year. On May 1st, the EU achieved the fifth and largest enlargement in history. With Poland and other 10 countries formally joining the EU, the membership of the EU expanded to 25 countries. Regional economic cooperation is one of the important trends in the change of world economic and trade pattern. With the gradual development of regional integration, the trade volume within the region has increased rapidly (see Table 4).
The prominent feature of the current development of regional economic cooperation is the rapid development of cross-regional bilateral or regional trade agreements, in which the number of South-North and South-South trade agreements is increasing. Of the 146 WTO members, 65 have signed or are signing trans-regional or intercontinental trade agreements. Due to the overlapping of members of regional trade agreements, the pressure to integrate the existing regional trade agreements is gradually expanding, which may lead to imbalance and instability in the integration process. Due to the variety of regional trade agreements, some trade agreements have gone beyond the traditional scope of reducing trade and investment barriers, or excluded trade liberalization in the most sensitive product sectors, which makes the impact of these trade agreements uncertain. For WTO, the biggest challenge at present is to find a way to coordinate regional trade agreements with WTO goals as much as possible and minimize the negative impact of regional trade agreements. It is worth pointing out that paying attention to whether regional trade policies violate the principles of the multilateral trading system and urging regional trade policies to move closer to WTO principles has become an important content of WTO’s consideration of trade policies of members in recent years.
4. There are still many trade barriers around the world, and the degree of world trade frictions and conflicts has increased.
Generally speaking, bound by multilateral trade agreements, tariff barriers and traditional non-tariff barriers have gradually weakened their position in international trade and no longer constitute the main obstacles to market access. However, in practice, developed countries are still effectively using structural tariffs to protect their so-called "sensitive industries", which seriously hinders the expansion of labor-intensive products and agricultural products such as textiles, which are dominant in developing countries. At present, the average tariff levied by developed countries on imported products from developing countries is 4-5 times that of developed countries. The tariff peaks in the United States and Canada are mostly concentrated on textiles and shoes, while those in Japan and the European Union are concentrated on agricultural products. Due to the huge technological gap between developed countries and developing countries, the technical standards implemented by developed countries constitute technical barriers to other countries, especially to developing countries unilaterally. Because of the two most prominent weaknesses of backward technology and lack of funds, developing countries are unable to overcome some technical barriers for the time being. According to the data of WTO, anti-dumping in various countries is constantly emerging. From 1995 to 2002, WTO members initiated a total of 2,160 anti-dumping investigations, and more than 70% of the anti-dumping investigations initiated by developed and developing countries were aimed at developing countries’ exports, which obviously increased the difficulties for developing countries to explore the international market. Developing countries are pressing for further improvement of WTO anti-dumping rules to reduce the arbitrariness of countries in anti-dumping standards and procedures and reduce the adverse impact of anti-dumping on normal export trade.
Driven by domestic economic and political interests, the tendency of global trade protectionism has obviously intensified due to the unbalanced economic development of various countries, the frustration of Doha Round negotiations, the US election and other factors. World trade frictions and conflicts have emerged one after another, and they are all-round among developed countries, developing countries and developed countries, and developing countries. With the expiration of the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing at the end of this year, the United States is actively encouraging the textile and clothing associations of Mexico, Turkey and other countries to ask the WTO to extend the deadline for canceling the relevant quotas in this agreement to December 31, 2007, which will undoubtedly cause loss of interests to many textile exporting countries.
5. Negotiations on the Doha Development Agenda of WTO are progressing difficultly, and the multilateral trading system is facing severe challenges.
The new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations has not progressed smoothly since it was launched in Doha in November 2001. The Cancun meeting in September 2003 was originally intended to bring new political impetus to the negotiations through the mid-term review, but due to serious differences between the parties, the meeting failed to achieve the expected results. In the next four months, the negotiations have been in a state of stagnation. In January this year, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick submitted a letter to members, hoping that 2004 would not become a "lost year" for WTO negotiations. In February, he visited Japan, China, Singapore, India, South Africa and other countries to win over developing countries and put pressure on the EU. Until March, multilateral negotiations began to show some signs of recovery, and members resumed contacts on issues such as agriculture and non-agricultural market access at WTO headquarters. Judging from the current situation, it is difficult for the United States and Europe to concentrate on multilateral negotiations because of the American election and the eastward expansion of the European Union this year. It is expected that the current negotiations can only be loose and within a certain range, and it is difficult to enter substantive consultations and negotiations. The Doha Round cannot be concluded as planned at the end of this year.
At present, there is a serious imbalance in the multilateral trading system, which has deepened the gap between the rich and the poor between the North and the South to a certain extent and worsened the development environment of developing countries. The best way to limit or reduce trade distortions and improve the multilateral trading system is to make progress in the Doha development agenda. After Cancun meeting, developing members reiterated that the effectiveness of the multilateral trading system of WTO should be fully maintained, and called for seeking trade balance within the framework of the multilateral trading system and promoting negotiations along the direction and time authorized by Doha. Supachai Panitchpakdi, Director-General of WTO, also reminded all the negotiators that it is impossible for members to get all the benefits they want in trade negotiations, but through unremitting efforts and sufficient patience of all parties, it is far more satisfying to achieve some results than not to make any progress.
All WTO members are also aware that the role and influence of the multilateral trading system is irreplaceable by both sides. Pushing the negotiations back on track, especially whether big countries and powerful countries can make greater concessions and implement the principle of balance of interests, is a key factor affecting the future direction of international economic relations. Judging from the bumpy course of the Uruguay Round, the success of the Doha Development Agenda is bound to be difficult, which requires global leaders to show their political will to promote the development of the world economy through trade liberalization and establish equal trade rules, and also requires all parties to the negotiations to show greater flexibility and have enough patience.
6. The influence of non-economic factors on world trade is increasingly prominent, which increases the instability of trade growth.
The "9.11" incident and the subsequent anti-terrorism activities spread from the United States to all parts of the world, the SARS epidemic and bird flu in some countries and regions in 2003 and 2004, etc., not only brought huge losses to global aviation, transportation, tourism, insurance and service industries, but also brought extremely adverse effects on international logistics. The strengthening of security measures and the increase of transportation and insurance costs have greatly increased transaction costs and hindered and slowed down the normal development of world trade. Some experts estimate that since "9.11", worldwide commercial property and liability insurance premiums have increased by 30% on average, and security measures have increased the cost of international trade by 1-2%. At present, terrorist activities still occur from time to time around the world. The domestic situation in the Gulf region and some oil-producing countries is turbulent, and the international security situation is still severe and complicated. This has added variables to the world political and economic situation to a certain extent and threatened the growth of world trade.
(Lu Yan, Research Institute, Ministry of Commerce)